We first need to define Canada production in a wide range of views. Then understand how much French wheat is of low Falling Number, how much can be obtained from droughty Kazakhstan and deep within obscure places like India. Then determine Australian & Mexican availability. Then go down path of substitution, like in Algeria, the more baguette versus couscous debate, or in Turkey that will use more soft wheat and export more product with a changed box label. All in the confines of trying to understand perception, emotion and timing of risk management, behavior that has little to do with a supply/demand. Keep in mind that the CWB is not around to make discretionary decisions, all of which combined means throw out the durum rule book. It is being re-written. It’s a radically different outcome when were talking about a volume problem year. If would like more detail, please send me an email.
26 Aug, 2021