Tweak or challenge assumptions within a rye supply/demand as you desire, and the conclusion is the same. A combination of supply being too large and discretionary demand expansion being too slow means core rye pricing will be as a feed grain in year ahead.
India government released its Second Advance Production Estimates this week for a number of crops. Chana production, equivalent to desi chickpea type, whose harvest has just begun and will be in full swing last half March, was pegged at 11.6 MMT versus 11.1 MMT last year if believe the government, and 9.5-10.0 MMT if believe the trade. A number of industry participants believe this year’s chana crop is closer to 9.5-10.0 MMT. Difference would have significant market implications that apply to all classes of chickpeas, lentils and possibly field peas. It’s must have knowledge and implications if a Canadian pulse grower. Shoot me an email and I can shed insight.
Renewable fuel is mainly a US domestic development that has been with us for some time, but whose respective contribution and potential vegoil feedstock demand shifts are quietly accelerating under our nose. What makes the situation unique is that it is either poorly understood or is on the radar of the minority. Driven mainly by California policy today, it has important ramifications to any Canadian with a canola interest. This has been researched with fresh insight. Please drop me a an email for more more detail.
Looking for a reasonable price to use for 21/22 budgeting purposes in Western Canada?
It starts with a set of assumptions, an understanding of risks and then piece it out by commodity. Thinking needs to be radically different than most years because of demand bull conditions.
Please send me an email, and I can send you more detail.
As measured by the port of New Orleans Louisiana (NOLA), urea prices are up about US $70 per short ton since the New Year. Reasons include better than expected demand in India and abroad due to strong commodity prices, and disrupted supply, some logistical, some political and some linked to limited anticipatory planning to have larger scale production program in place for deferred shipping slots. Canadian retail prices are adjusting.
This can get fixed by summer but unlikely prior to the North American spring application time. I just completed a couple reports on this. Shoot me an email if would like more depth.
There’s a little more going on in wheat than meets the eye. It’s not the first time that Russia has initiated an export tax, last one being in Dec-2014, but market conditions then were different. Russia price grid adjusted inclusive of farmer accepting lower price because importers had ample wheat buying choices. Like most years, that was a supply-push year. Not so today. Most important observation is this. Statistics or supply/demand’s won’t convey it, but wheat market dynamics have shifted to a rare seller’s market.
Shoot me an email and I’ll send you the detail
New crop Yellow Pea Price on the Rise: Using W 1/2 of Saskatchewan as a benchmark, the price journey started with postings equivalent to the high $7’s, then $8/bu and so on. The analysis in demand bull conditions can be kept relatively simple. China should buy as many peas at $8/bu as farmers will sell and grain shippers will ship. Move calendar and shipping slots forward, raise price and on it slowly goes until import arbitrage math into China doesn’t work.
If you would like more detail on this, please send me an email
Unless the commodity is directly involved with grain and oilseed demand bull conditions, it’s tough for other smaller commodities like mustard to indirectly and proactively adjust behavior. This is particularly true with mustard because of consumptive adversity due to less outdoor eating. The world still needs about 10,000t a month from Canada for export purposes and 5,000t a month for domestic use. With strong competing crop prices, it is not a foregone conclusion that Canadian mustard seeded acreage jumps in a meaningful way. What happens if people get vaccinated and start to become more socially active again into 2022?
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China bought modest feed barley tonnage from Ukraine/France for summer 2021 shipment this week. China also has bought some Canadian barley for autumn 2021 shipment, all at prices that were a tad under recent old crop highs. Not only does it indicate that China barley import appetite is shifting higher, it hints that China demand bull conditions have shelf life. China would not buy major volume of new crop barley at that price otherwise.
I’m constantly mining the non-obvious for behaviour and clues to help understand big-picture trends or risk-reward. If you would like more detail on this, please send me an email an l’ll send it to you. I can be reached by clicking here
