The political landscape of canola could not be kookier and more complex.  US biofuel policy, specifically whether US adopts the new producers credit or extends existing blenders credit remains in limbo.  As such, biofuel producers have been handcuffed for months, pushing US soyoil to an island of low price versus high price for most of past two years.  US import tariff risks are another, a big deal because Canada now supplies US with 90% of its canolaoil export volume versus 50% few years back.

China anti-dump threat is another political risk.  At least on later, we got confirmation that China is actually buying more in the past 1-2 weeks.    Canada has likely shipped 2.5-2.75 MMT already during 24/25, and has minimum another 1 MMT set to go, an assumption that isn’t guaranteed, but goes until it isn’t or can’t.  Supplementary evidence of China, and even European interest is found via better export basis levels, and tighter futures spreads.

The canola supply demand can go many ways.  It depends on political outcomes and when it occurs.  For now, and until such clarity emerges, canola isn’t deserving of starting an uptrend or downtrend, yet should remain volatile depending on headline of the day.