• Wheat is deserving of evolving into an uptrend if (i) led by corn, (ii) Black Sea wheat price participates and leads, (iii) geopolitical disruption occurs, (iv) 2023 weather wreck.  Since the answer to all of these today is no……explains directional bias.  Through a Western Canada lens, wheat is leaving fast, such that we’ll eventually reach sold out status with gravitation to basically zero shipping margins.
  • The world including China will play the cheaper choice trump card at the price discovery table all day long, and unless it makes economic or strategic sense, will only selectively chase other origin higher priced choices.
  • While we can micro-manage South American corn production prospects, smaller but regular availability of cheaper Polish/Ukraine corn is your 250 mil bu of US origin export demand variance squelch button.  The bigger prize is this…..killing time until 2023 US production prospects cement.
  • Soy has demand moments linked to timing of China buys.  Brazil to be the core cheaper export hub Feb forward, with Argentina weather a perception influencer, but whose market read supply is to only engage when government offers a Peso program now.
  • Week ago US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announcement has stymied the “now” vegoil bull.  Capacity increases and growth from Sustained Aviation Fuel and Renewable Fuel is not really a major 2023 story, rather “later” in 2024.

Above fits into narrative that has been researched with trend ideas always refined.  Please reach out for more detail.