India government just lowered the lentil import tariff by 10% and lower the Agriculture Infrastructure Development (CESS) by 10%. A net 20+2% import tariff reduction. Effective date looks to be July 27, with no mention of an expiry date either in writing or from parliamentary video feed. An expiry date would be preferred but means little right now because all know that amendments can occur at anytime. Given India stock limits and risk of policy amendments at a whims notice, trading demand is unlikely to carry same anticipatory behavior as before. Further, volume and fluidity is impaired because container logistics are a mess. Yet this policy announcement underscores a core fundamental piece to big picture view…..India is pulse deficit. Smaller to mediocre crop size in Canada should harmonize with India being a greater import threat to sustain upward price risk. Maybe a little sooner now in context of front loading trading demand.
27 Jul, 2021