Wheat A Seller’s Market Jan 19-21

There’s a little more going on in wheat than meets the eye. It’s not the first time that Russia has initiated an export tax, last one being in Dec-2014, but market conditions then were different. Russia price grid adjusted inclusive of farmer accepting lower price because importers had ample wheat buying choices. Like most years, that was a supply-push year. Not so today. Most important observation is this. Statistics or supply/demand’s won’t convey it, but wheat market dynamics have shifted to a rare seller’s market.

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Yellow Peas Jan 7-21

New crop Yellow Pea Price on the Rise:  Using W 1/2 of Saskatchewan as a benchmark, the price journey started with postings equivalent to the high $7’s, then $8/bu and so on.  The analysis in demand bull conditions can be kept relatively simple.  China should buy as many peas at $8/bu as farmers will sell and grain shippers will ship.  Move calendar and shipping slots forward, raise price and on it slowly goes until import arbitrage math into China doesn’t work.

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Mustard Dec 18-20

Unless the commodity is directly involved with grain and oilseed demand bull conditions, it’s tough for other smaller commodities like mustard to indirectly and proactively adjust behavior.  This is particularly true with mustard because of consumptive adversity due to less outdoor eating.  The world still needs about 10,000t a month from Canada for export purposes and 5,000t a month for domestic use.  With strong competing crop prices, it is not a foregone conclusion that Canadian mustard seeded acreage jumps in a meaningful way.  What happens if people get vaccinated and start to become more socially active again into 2022?

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Feed Barley: Nov 28-20

China bought modest feed barley tonnage from Ukraine/France for summer 2021 shipment this week. China also has bought some Canadian barley for autumn 2021 shipment, all at prices that were a tad under recent old crop highs. Not only does it indicate that China barley import appetite is shifting higher, it hints that China demand bull conditions have shelf life. China would not buy major volume of new crop barley at that price otherwise.

I’m constantly mining the non-obvious for behaviour and clues to help understand big-picture trends or risk-reward. If you would like more detail on this, please send me an email an l’ll send it to you. I can be reached by clicking here

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