High Level Take: It’s a stock rebuilding year. Even with poor Canada yield (i) acreage is high, (ii) prices have been extremely high for 2 years creating solution-ingenuity that at the margin includes digging deep into Eastern Europe or Black Sea for supply, possibly even with a splash of guar gum substitution in meat binder. Hefty early contracting, even if 2023 yields didn’t meet Act of God threshold, creates sufficient market ready. Toss in some global importer affordability woes, specifically how it is bought, amid statistical awareness that Canada demand only averages 12,000t a month, can’t see anyone being surprised, fooled or unprepared by tightness this year. As such, mustard price cycle has likely peaked, for all types.
18 Nov, 2023