June 07-22: Pulses Grinding Along
Situation and prices seem to be in a sweet spot because
(i) Farmers have limited interest to supply-push sell. Why? Competing crop prices are strong, supplemented with a calendar date where it’s easy to be concerned about agronomic risks.
(ii) Consumers and importers have limited interest to demand-pull buy, rather pick away in hand to mouth fashion. Why? Financial, logistical & political headaches, anticipation of a cheaper new crop reload with price perceived to be high only because of war. Further, India is not perceived to be a volume import buying threat, while new crop growing conditions are good enough to justify idling.
(iii) Anticipatory trading demand, which is code for speculative positioning, is subdued because a confident directional price bias is lacking. Between war, politics, logistics, inflation, weather possibilities, benign supply/demands and perception of steady to strong consumptive demand, most cannot deviate from a see how it goes bias today.
Exceptions exist. Example chickpeas. Please contact me for more detail.