Commodity markets often move in cycles that trend up, down, or sideways, often over many years. While reasons may differ each time, my belief is that buying or selling strategies can be built with such big-picture insight; which can then be fined tuned to cash flow, agronomy and profitability at the local level.

We get blasted with noise about markets doing this and that every day. Pricing grain is not about picking tops and bottoms; why tackle something that is impossible to answer? It’s about always having an answer to the following 3 questions:

which way is market trending;
why is it trending that way;
what’s required to change it.

Such an approach helps one to maintain an objective and disciplined approach without emotion.


Commodity markets will generate unpredictable surprises, but if we can be thinking about trends and cycles over the long term, odds of participating in it are increased; and this includes avoidance of selling or buying too soon or too late. This is a self-taught personal philosophy derived leveraging nearly 30 years of doing this kind of work.

I deliver the fundamental insight and tools to help you do your pricing job better.