Demand for Canadian origin flax is just bad because of what’s been an abundance of cheap Black Sea supply and respective ability to service China and Europe. Canada has only exported 35,000t Aug-Oct 2023 and is in need of help, otherwise carryout stays large.
So far, Canada price discovery is about domestic periodically paying about $1-2/bu above export, but that kind of demand speed is similar to filling a truck with a pail. Canada needs auger velocity.
Better Potential. China looks to have imported about 1.1 MMT Aug/July 22/23 because price got cheap, and in doing so hoovered Black Sea exportable surplus. Low price dropped Black Sea seeded area with Kazakhstan market readiness reportedly impaired by adverse harvest weather forcing large overwintering. European price had a US $100/t spike in summer-23 mostly due to linoil becoming cheaper than vegoil peers. Seed sunk $50/t in autumn and is now up about US $100/t in past weeks. Current replacement is about $16/bu backed off into Saskatchewan. It feels like Europe is struggling to get linseed as planned from Black Sea, and needs a market ready infusion from Canada. Earliest would be for open of Thunder Bay spring shipping, possibly at a $17-18/bu type price.