Trade will likely discount a final Canada production expectation in a range of 17 – 18 MMT as the conclusion to growing season had some yield offsetting parts. Setting aside individual differences, whatever the number, when perception of crop size stops getting smaller and instead becomes “it is what it is”, canola would be ripe for a sell-off correction because discretionary demand still requires periodic large volume participation from China amid a reminder that cheaper offshore choices and origins exist. Basically a version of past two years but without the early hefty export commitment, and think that cross-road risk is now. As such, sustained bullish momentum needs outside leadership help, like ongoing Russia port bombing or US soy drought.
28 Jul, 2023