Peas

Situation and prices seem to be in a sweet spot because

(i) Farmers have limited interest to supply-push sell. Why?  Competing crop prices are strong, supplemented with a calendar date where it’s easy to be concerned about agronomic risks.

(ii) Consumers and importers have limited interest to demand-pull buy, rather pick away in hand to mouth fashion. Why?  Financial, logistical & political headaches, anticipation of a cheaper new crop reload with price perceived to be high only because of war.  Further, India is not perceived to be a volume import buying threat, while new crop growing conditions are good enough to justify idling.

(iii) Anticipatory trading demand, which is code for speculative positioning, is subdued because a confident directional price bias is lacking. Between war, politics, logistics, inflation, weather possibilities, benign supply/demands and perception of steady to strong consumptive demand, most cannot deviate from a see how it goes bias today.

Exceptions exist.  Example chickpeas.  Please contact me for more detail.

Normally at this calendar point, there is a lot going on in our pulse world.  Not so much this year.  Little is changing but neither are core expectations as described in recent research.  Users got immediate fill late summer and have a handful of reasons to lay low.  Logistics are fueling necessary rationing.  Red lentils have other headwinds like uncertain India policy (stock limits and import tariff), and another import choice, which is Australia that everybody on this planet knows about.  Domestic, including pet food, generally provides bulk of immediate interest.

Anticipated end demand result is this.  Exporters, resellers, brokers and users have reasons to keep positions small.  Trading demand is subdued, yet consumptive demand rolls along.  Instead of more conventional sugar-rush all-or-none moments, anticipatory trading demand is contained.  This instead means a shallower less volatile but elongated trading demand period, that may only convey spunk later winter.  Every pulse has a different tweak and positional starting point.  This has been researched.  Drop me an email for more information.

India government released its Second Advance Production Estimates this week for a number of crops.  Chana production, equivalent to desi chickpea type, whose harvest has just begun and will be in full swing last half March, was pegged at 11.6 MMT versus 11.1 MMT last year if believe the government, and 9.5-10.0 MMT if believe the trade.  A number of industry participants believe this year’s chana crop is closer to 9.5-10.0 MMT.  Difference would have significant market implications that apply to all classes of chickpeas, lentils and possibly field peas.  It’s must have knowledge and implications if a Canadian pulse grower.  Shoot me an email and I can shed insight.