It’s too early to know if the Hard Red Spring wheat story is only about volume, protein or both. Volume for sure as North American spring wheat beginning supply is poised to be the lowest since 12/13 (for now), but protein can come into play because US Hard Red Winter protein is weak. The last US spring wheat wreck was 2017 and it was a low HRS & HRW protein year. Stress ups odds for higher protein HRS outcome and can skew price discovery. Typically when in prime weather chaos, going with perception of crop size getting smaller or bigger is useful. But keep in mind that this isn’t the first high priced HRS rodeo that millers have been too, and that spring wheat is the only imbalanced world wheat class.
Research on this just completed. Please contact me for more detail.