No matter what crop size Canada harvests, there is no lentil shortage without India being an import threat. In that regard, opinion is that India has a food inflation challenge. Domestic wheat and rice prices are strong. Pigeon pea prices are on fire. India domestic red lentil trend has been flat for several months, but the risk is for the trend to turn northward into autumn. India announcing an extension of zero lentil import tariff through to March 31-23, two months sooner than need be, is viewed to give trade advance certainty should trading market conditions align. Australia and Kazakhstan are to provide other importer choices.
For larger price moves to happen, must involve (i) user panic, (ii) farmer panic, (iii) frontload trading demand with a long or short positional bias taken by traders. Feels realizing to me. Have carved out a risk reward conclusion, and it starts with staying glued to India domestic pricing. Please contact me for more detail