Buoyed by decent crop size and relative high price, both Russia and Kazakhstan are motivated sellers. Offshore industrial demand is somewhat more fragile due to economic malaise in China and Europe. Consumers are pulling back on discretionary choices.
However the numbers are carved out, Canada needs about 200,000t of demand from China and/or Europe. A version of it will eventually happen, but won’t today if domestic flax prices stay north of $20/bu. As at Sept 9-22, if Canada had to sell to Europe, competitive price is about C $16.50/bu delivered elevator, making existing price structure exclusively domestic. Please contact me for more info.